Stocks in producing countries

Extreme caution must be exercised when looking at producer-held stock figures, as the numbers involved do not necessarily reflect true availability. In some cases the official estimates will underestimate the amount held as it is often impossible to record the total volume held in private hands in a country, while in other cases the figures will exaggerate the amount available. This was certainly the case in the past when stocks, whether of exportable quality or not, played an important role in determining a producing country’s quota at the ICO, as it was to a country’s advantage to record the highest possible stock figure.  

Furthermore, stock verifications ceased in 1989 with the suspension of the quota system. Although the figures produced from the verification exercise were questionable, they were the product of a reasonably rigorous procedure. Since then the figures have been based on national estimates and there has been no independent verification of the accuracy or otherwise of these figures. As a result published statistics are subject to frequent revisions, some of which are substantial going back over a number of years.  A degree of caution is therefore necessary when using these figures in any analysis. 

Opening stocks by type, crop years 2005/06 – 2009/10
(in thousands of bags)