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  • Soluble coffee - outlook

     
     

    The bulk of the soluble coffee exported from producing countries is spray-dried powder. Brazil accounts for just under half of all soluble coffee exports. Intense price competition coupled with diminishing demand has led to a marked reduction in the spray dried powder manufacturing capacity in many consuming countries, although a significant proportion of that reduced capacity has been transferred to other, usually emerging, markets. It does not appear, therefore, that there is a very secure future for new entrants planning to supply spray-dried powder. 

    Freeze-dried soluble continues to make significant progress, although processing is comparatively expensive and the product quality demands a high proportion of the more expensive arabica. The process is therefore unsuitable for countries that produce only robusta. The market has primarily been developed by Nestlé and Kraft Foods, although a number of other companies are actively involved in the sector, particularly those producing own labels. Brazil and Colombia are important suppliers and while the market for freeze-dried coffees is growing there are concerns that there is already tremendous manufacturing over-capacity in both Brazil and a number of consuming countries such as Germany. Freeze-dried coffee accounts for around 30% of all sales of soluble coffee. Trade opinion suggests that the market for soluble coffee as a whole is likely to grow only slowly over the next ten years; by contrast the market for freeze-dried coffee is expected to continue growing at a much faster rate.  

    The opportunity for new suppliers must be weighed against current excess manufacturing capacity, which is probably sufficient to cover most, if not all, the anticipated increase in demand for a number of years. Although most exports of soluble coffee are as finished product (in primary so not retail packaging), some sales are made as frozen concentrate for finishing in the country of destination.  

    Exports of soluble coffee by coffee producing countries for the period 2004 - 2009 are shown in the table below. Most of the coffee exported was produced in the country of shipment. Soluble coffee is also produced in Malaysia for use in regional markets and in the Philippines, where it is used for domestic consumption. 

    Exports of Soluble Coffee by ICA Exporting Member Countries, 2004 – 2009* 

      

    2004 

    2005 

    2006 

    2007 

    2008 

    2009 

    Total 

    5,915,110 

    6,186,498 

    5,963,176 

    7,311,347 

    7,295,000 

    6,293,128 

    Colombian Milds 

    599,832 

    632,648 

    627,111 

    585,465 

    697,653 

    585,451 

    Colombia 

      592,445 

       626,690 

    622,731 

    583,173 

    696,494 

    584,461 

    Tanzania 

           7,387 

           5,9580 

    4,380 

    2,292 

    1,159 

    990 

    Other Milds 

    1,633,129 

    1,451,597 

    1,528,089 

    2,286,563 

    2,186,170 

    2,234,023 

    Ecuador  

    481,924 

    597,189 

    599,174 

    749,271 

    746,025 

    659,875 

    El Salvador 

    341 

    458 

    54 

    241 

    51 

    108 

    Guatemala 

    0 

    23 

    478 

    1,605 

    2,679 

    2,535 

    Guyana 

    641 

    394 

    1,665 

    1,851 

    1,510 

    0 

    Haiti 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    52 

    India 

    741,843 

    338,377 

    409,397 

    829,496 

    770,263 

    915,587 

    Jamaica 

    65 

    586 

    760 

    1,823 

    2,091 

    1,840 

    Mexico 

    344,043 

    444,319 

    430,176 

    624,842 

    601,930 

    610,151 

    Nicaragua 

    44,684 

    57,481 

    60,795 

    53,523 

    42,593 

    39,511 

    Peru 

    0 

    14 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    Panama 

    0 

    8 

    222 

    61 

    1,653 

    0 

    Venezuela 

    19,588 

    12,714 

    25,368 

    23,848 

    23,375 

    4,416 

    Zimbabwe 

    0 

    34 

    0 

    2 

    0 

    0 

    Brazilian Naturals 

    3,204,166 

    3,547,872 

    2,957,148 

    3,384,875 

    3,366,248 

    2,880,715 

    Brazil 

    3,183,956 

    3,525,169 

    2,948,212 

    3,372,692 

    3,364,599 

    2,880,715 

    Paraguay 

    20,197 

    22,703 

    8,933 

    12,183 

    1,650 

    0 

    Yemen 

    13 

    0 

    3 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    Robustas 

    477,347 

    554,382 

    850,827 

    1,054,442 

    1,038929 

    592,887 

    Cote d’Ivoire 

    231,045 

    258,152 

    581,039 

    846,868 

    417,669 

    391,170 

    Ghana 

    315 

    139 

    89 

    78 

    208 

    0 

    Guinea 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    236 

    0 

    0 

    Indonesia 

    181,590 

    223,384 

    192,029 

    149,283 

    602,804 

    187,079 

    Laos 

    0 

    0 

    31 

    21 

    86 

    0 

    Madagascar 

    0 

    182 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    Nigeria 

    428 

    0 

    0 

    2 

    139 

    0 

    Philippines 

    26,821 

    33,636 

    35,314 

    32,105 

    4,435 

    6,656 

    Sierra Leone 

    0 

    31 

    16 

    0 

    23 

    0 

    Sri Lanka 

    609 

    300 

    1,657 

    703 

    58 

    11 

    Thailand 

    558 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    0 

    Trinidad and Tobago 

    2,078 

    692 

    408 

    313 

    439 

    439 

    Vietnam 

    33,903 

    37,866 

    40,121 

    24,834 

    13,158 

    7,532 

    Source: ICO. For more up-to-date statistics go to www.ico.org 

    * in GBE, bags of 60 kgs. 

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